I do not see the DemocRats are taking the House or Senate.
I see a Red Wave washing DemocRats out of the House and Senate.
Even as Democrats remain the favorites to win back the House in less than a month, their prospects for capturing the Senate — already a longshot, thanks to a very challenging map — appear to be dimming even further. Republican voters were re-engaged by the Kavanaugh battle, a phenomenon that could disproportionately benefit the party in red-leaning states hosting major Senate races this cycle. Fortunately for the GOP, those are exactly the sorts of states that will decide the balance of power in the upper chamber. Whether this momentum can be sustained over the coming weeks is a crucial and open question, but for now, here’s survey of the latest fallout:
ARIZONA – For the first time in weeks, a new poll shows Republican Martha McSally springing out to a lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema:
Kavanaugh effect? New Arizona Senate poll has McSally ahead of Sinema by 6. https://www.abc15.com/news/state/poll-martha-mcsally-gaining-in-senate-race-against-kyrsten-sinema …
Poll: Martha McSally gaining in Senate race against Kyrsten Sinema
A new poll of Arizona’s contested Senate race shows frontrunner Republican Martha McSally increasing her lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.
The RealClearPolitics average in this race currently shows Sinema up by less than two points. It’s unclear whether this new survey is an outlier or a trend; in evaluating that point, it’s worth noting that this polling series from a local ABC affiliate showed McSally narrowly ahead, fleetingly, in early September (just after the primaries). I’d like to see more data before declaring that McSally has truly made a comeback. That said, the GOP must be seeing something in the Arizona numbers, as they’re deploying some heavy hitters to the state on McSally’s behalf:
Bush carried the state by ten points in 2004, and Romney by nine in 2012.
NORTH DAKOTA – In a cringe-worthy effort to explain her vote against Justice Kavanaugh, whose confirmation was overwhelmingly supported by her constituents, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp made a bizarre admission. She says she determined that Kavanaugh was likely guilty of attempted sexual assault based on his body language during the impassioned testimony he delivered in his own defense. Before that, Heitkamp claims, she was leaning ‘yes’ on his nomination, but her mute-button pop psychology steered her in the opposite direction. Allahpundit is rightly appalled:
That’s a clown senator, bro…I don’t know how else to understand the clip below except as an admission that she’s resigned to losing. It’s one thing to vote against Kavanaugh when you represent a very red state, it’s another to admit on camera that you did it for the exceptionally goofy reason that you didn’t like his face when you watched him speak with the sound off. It’s a ready-made attack ad for Kevin Cramer. Say this for much her, I guess: When you’ve got zippo by way of corroborating evidence of the claims against him, on what else can you base your opposition except something as gassy as body language?
This whole post is worth reading because it reminds everyone of the sort of stress Kavanaugh was under, and reviews the egregious demagoguery of Democrats on the Judiciary Committee, most of whom made no effort to even feign an attitude of basic fairness. Fighting for his survival and reputation, and accused of (among other things) facilitating serial gang rape, Kavanaugh’s sound-off agitated demeanor rubbed Heidi the wrong way. What a joke. The derisive laughter gets louder when you realize that it’s a transparent lie, too:
Her previous tale was that she remained undecided, pending the results of the FBI probe — which produced zero new evidence against Kavanaugh, and actually raised new concerns about Team Ford’s ethics and methods. Anyone who reached their conclusion prior to carefully reviewing the FBI’s work was jumping the gun, she intoned. But now she spills that she’d made up her mind as a amateur body language interpreter days earlier. Okay. On average, Heitkamp is down by nearly nine percentage points on average, with the last two polls giving Republican Kevin Cramer a double-digit lead. But don’t forget that she was viewed as cooked six years ago, yet pulled off a squeaker of an upset. The GOP shouldn’t make that same mistake again.