Second Amendment supporters need all of the good news we can get.
United States – -(AmmoLand.com)- Let me present two pieces of information for your consideration, loyal Ammoland readers, which will give you a glimpse into the minds of our enemies.
Piece of information number one: Comments from Democratic strategist David Shor, who was interviewed by New York Magazine about the 2020 election and trends for the 2022 midterms:
- “[H]istorically, Democrats have won non-white conservatives, often by very large margins. What happened in 2020 is that nonwhite conservatives voted for Republicans at higher rates; they started voting more like white conservatives.”
- “[T]he fundamental problem is that Democrats have been relying on the support of roughly 90 percent of Black voters and 70 percent of Hispanic voters. So if Democrats elevate issues or theories that a large minority of nonwhite voters reject, it’s going to be hard to keep those margins.”
- “Basically, we have this small window right now to pass redistricting reform and create states. And if we don’t use this window, we will almost certainly lose control of the federal government and not be in a position to pass laws again potentially for a decade.”
Does this sound like someone confident in the so-called “emerging Democratic majority” or in the inevitability of a “coalition of the ascendant?” The answer is clearly, “No.” These are the comments of a political strategist who sees the political landscape shifting and not necessarily to the advantage of those he is strategizing for.
For instance, Gallup’s polling shows that conservatives (who we can generally assume are pro-Second Amendment) hold an 11-point lead over liberals (where the bulk of anti-Second Amendment extremists come from), 36-25, with 35 percent of the country identifying as moderate. Now, the exact splits may vary by state, county, state/local legislative district, or Congressional district, but there is one thing Shor noted in his interview: “Roughly the same proportion of African American, Hispanic, and white voters identify as conservative.”
Shor’s comments indicate that the ratios Gallup found don’t really discriminate by race. This means that given the ratios that the anti-Second Amendment extremists running the Democratic Party count on to win elections, there is a demographic disaster looming, but it isn’t for the Second Amendment. If anything, given the trends Shor mentioned, you can see that the anti-Second Amendment extremists who currently run the Democratic party are in a precarious situation and are thus pushing desperate measures to avoid being locked out of power.
What else can explain the furor of the Left over Tim Scott’s state of the union response, or the candidacy of Caitlin Jenner for governor of California, if not furthering those ideological fault lines? That isn’t the only factor as well. After the 2018 midterms, I noted that sometimes, other issues will dominate the election. That year, health care was the issue, and along with a distaste for President Trump’s tone, it hurt pro-Second Amendment candidates. In 2022, critical race theory, Biden’s co-called “equity” agenda, and the Left’s affinity for socialism could be the issues that dominate.
Asian-American and suburban moderates, in particular, aren’t taking too kindly to “equity” campaigns in local school districts, which means that over the short term, they may ignore a pro-Second Amendment position they would otherwise see as a deal-breaker to defeat local and state officeholders who are carrying out an “equity” campaign.
As for socialism, Shor himself admits that it shifted Hispanic and Asian-American support away from Democrats, saying, “I think one natural inference is that the increased salience of socialism in 2020 — with the rise of AOC and the prominence of anti-socialist messaging from the GOP — had something to do with the shift among those groups.” Shor also noted the Hispanic opposition to the “defund the police” campaign.
While some might hold permanent grudges over those issues and change their voting accordingly, others will default to the other issues that held primacy in their decision-making process on Election Day. How big each of those groups will be is the big question. Once the immediate crisis is over, the number of people whose defections are permanent can be maximized if Second Amendment supporters are willing to put in the work to change these “temporary” defectors into Second Amendment allies who will overlook the other issues, or at least render them non-hostile to those candidates and officeholders who defend our rights.
This is achievable but will involve carefully thought out messaging, along with hiring translators to start making the case to new arrivals. Let’s face it, until 2025, the Biden-Harris regime will have the gates thrown open. The question is, whether we surrender to despair or fight like hell to make our case? The latter may be the better option. Why?
For that, let’s consider piece of information number two: Polling results from the Washington Post as reported by Breitbart News, showing a sharp drop in support for anti-Second Amendment measures among young people and Hispanics. John Nolte noted a number of reasons why this is happening, including the riots of last summer and the lack of response by authorities.
The 2020 election has taught us that leaving votes on the table could be bad for the future of the Second Amendment.
There are huge gains to be had for Second Amendment supporters, who just need to be willing to put in the work to accelerate some trends that are already starting instead of surrendering to despair.